SAT OwlQuestion bank / Evaluating statistical claims: observational studies and experiments
Over one winter, a researcher recorded the number of cups of hot chocolate sold each day at a downtown café and the number of skiers each day at a ski area miles away. Days with more hot chocolate sales tended to have more skiers. Which of the following is the most likely explanation for this association?
Buying hot chocolate downtown causes people to go skiing.
Going skiing causes people to buy hot chocolate downtown.
The association must be due to chance, because the two variables are unrelated.
Cold, snowy weather tends to increase both hot chocolate sales and the number of skiers.
Show answer and explanation
Answer: D
This is an observational study, so it can't show that one variable causes the other. The café and the ski area are miles apart, so a direct link between the two is unlikely. A third variable, cold and snowy weather, can explain why both go up on the same days.
Choice A treats an association as cause and effect, which an observational study like this can't establish.
Why the other choices are wrong
- A. An observational study can show an association but not cause and effect.
- B. The café is 50 miles from the ski area, and an observational study can't show cause and effect anyway.
- C. Days with more of one tended to have more of the other, so the variables are associated.
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